• US intelligence agencies assess that Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei plays a key role in shaping war strategy, but the precise distribution of power within the regime remains unclear.
  • Khamenei has not appeared in public since suffering severe injuries in an attack that killed his father and several top military commanders.
  • The US intelligence community has not been able to visually confirm Khamenei’s whereabouts; he does not use electronics for communication, only contacting via couriers.
  • Iranian officials claim Khamenei is recovering and ‘completely healthy,’ but analysts suspect some within Iran’s power structure may claim access to Khamenei to usurp his authority.
  • The CIA estimates Iran can withstand up to four more months of the US blockade without full economic destabilization, and about two-thirds of Iran’s missile launchers survived US strikes.
  • Despite a ceasefire, US and Iranian military forces have exchanged fire, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly stopped.

Sources & Links