IMF chief warns: Economy faces much worse outcome if war continues
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- Kristalina Georgieva warned that continued war in the Middle East could lead to rising inflation and a worse economic outcome.
- If the war continues into 2027 with oil prices around $125 per barrel, the IMF predicts a significantly worse scenario.
- The IMF’s adverse scenario is already in effect, with growth forecast at 2.5% and inflation at 5.4% in 2026.
- The severe scenario predicts global growth of only 2% and inflation of 5.8%.
- Georgieva noted that inflation expectations could start to deviate if the war continues.